Global Warming

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0><tr> <td valign="top" colspan=2 height=110 BGCOLOR="#0099FF" TEXT="#F7F7FF" bgproperties="fixed" background="040006e0egcecm.png"> <div> <FONT SIZE="6" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Times New Roman" ><B>Global Warming</B></FONT><FONT SIZE="6" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" ><B> </B></FONT><FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" ><B>    |    </B></FONT><B> </B><A HREF="index.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Sage Oxfords Christian Environmental Gr"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>Sir John Houghton's key note lecture at the "</B></I><I><B>Climate Change: How Christians Respond" </B></I><I><B>conference</B></I></div> </td> </tr><tr> <td valign="top" width=190 BGCOLOR="#FFFF80" TEXT="#080000" background="041bec00eoydwl.png"> <bR> <div> <B><IMG SRC="31e9dd10.jpg" border=0 width="157" height="209" ALT="Sir John Houghton" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="10" VSPACE="10"></B></div> <div> <B>Back to the main page for </B><A HREF="climatechange.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Climate Change: How Christians Respond"><U><B>Climate Change: How Christians Respond</B></U></A></div> </td> <td valign="top" height=370 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#FF0033" FACE="Times New Roman" ><I><B>Global Warming</B></I><I><B>,</B></I></FONT><I><B> </B></I><I><B>key note lecture by Sir</B></I><I><B> John Houghton </B></I><I><B>at the "</B></I><I><B>Climate Change: How Christians Respond" conference</B></I></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><IMG SRC="10d41300.png" border=0 width="65" height="48" ALIGN="LEFT" HSPACE="5" VSPACE="5"></FONT>Shortly after our conference Sir John flew to the United States to continue his efforts to convince American Evangelicals about Global Warming. You can view his presentation on the JRI site at <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="http://www.jri.org.uk/content/view/49/1/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.jri.org.uk/content/view/49/1/"><U>Climate Change: a Christian Challenge and Opportunity</U></A></FONT> (there is also a 3.2 MB download of Powerpoint slides for you there!!). Listen to a radio interview and read an article about this at <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Times New Roman" ><B>Evangelicals Take on Environmental, Social Issues.</B></FONT></div> <bR> <div> <B>Report on Sir John's Presentation at High Wycombe</B></div> <div> Sir John began by explaining the “greenhouse effect” in simple terms. It is essential to our survival on this planet, but since the Industrial Revolution we have been adding to the gases that are responsible for the effect at an increasing rate. At the moment, we are pumping 7,000 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Before the Industrial Revolution carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were 280 ppm, but they have now risen to 377 ppm. Scientists predict that the levels at the end of the century will be 5-700 ppm. This is worrying as they have not been at these levels for millions of years. As a result of the increase in carbon dioxide levels the Earth has been warming up throughout the 20<FONT SIZE="1" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >th</FONT> century. In recent years the rate of rise in temperature has increased, with 1998 being the warmest year on record. What will happen this century? Most models predict between two and six degrees centigrade rise by 2100. Of course the amount of the increase will very much depend on what we do to curb carbon emissions this century. To put the increase in context the difference between an Ice Age and a warm period is about 5-6 degrees.</div> <div> <B>Impacts</B></div> <div> Sea level is likely to rise, partly due to expansion of water due to increased temperature, and partly due to melting of ice caps and glaciers. About a 0.5 metre rise is likely in the next 100 years. This could cause serious problems for low-lying areas such as Bangladesh and Southern China.</div> <div> Heat waves will become more common. In the 2003 heat wave in Europe temperatures were 2.5 degrees above the warmest ever, and 5 degrees above average. An estimated 20 thousand people above normal died due to these extreme temperatures. If current trends continue, 2003 will be an average year by the middle of the century, and a cold year by the end of the century.</div> <div> With increased evaporation due to higher temperatures, we can expect amore intense hydrological cycle. So there will be more rain and floods, but also more droughts. This will cause us some problems in the UK, but it will be the poorer nations that will be worst affected. It has been estimated by Myers that there will be 150 million environmental refugees by 2050.</div> <div> It has been suggested that there will be some positive aspects of global warming. Areas, such as Siberia, will get warmer, but even here it could cause problems as the permafrost will melt, and many houses will become unstable. Increased carbon dioxide will have a fertilizing effect for some plants, and some crops will show greater yields. But overall, these positive effects will mostly happen in the rich countries, and the poorer nations are likely to get even poorer.</div> <div> The ice sheets will continue to melt, and this could affect the circulation of the Gulf Stream. This scenario was dramatically depicted in the film “The Day after Tomorrow”, but Sir John was at pains to stress that the type of rapid cooling over a period of three weeks that was depicted in the film was exceedingly unlikely.</div> <div> Sir John concluded this section by referring the delegates to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) web site <FONT SIZE="4" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="http://www.ipcc.ch" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.ipcc.ch"><U><U>www.ipcc.ch</U></U></A></FONT> for more details.</div> <bR> <div> <B>What can be done?</B></div> <div> Sir John began this section by referring to the following table:</div> <bR> <div> Carbon Emissions per capita per annum in 2000 (tonnes C)</div> <bR> <div> <TABLE BORDER="2" CELLPADDING="2" CELLSPACING="1" WIDTH="230" BORDERCOLORLIGHT="#C0C0C0" BORDERCOLORDARK="#808080" FRAME="BOX" RULES="ALL" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" > <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 26 WIDTH="138"><div> USA </div> </tD> <tD VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="73"><div> 5.5</div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 26 WIDTH="138"><div> UK</div> </tD> <tD VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="73"><div> 2.5</div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 26 WIDTH="138"><div> China</div> </tD> <tD VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="73"><div> 0.7 </div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 26 WIDTH="138"><div> India</div> </tD> <tD VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="73"><div> 0.3</div> </tD> </tR> <tR> <tD VALIGN=TOP HEIGHT= 26 ><NOBR><div> <B>World Average </B></div> </NOBR></tD> <tD VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="73"><div> <B>1.0</B></div> </tD> </tR> </TABLE></div> <bR> <div> Clearly there is a considerable imbalance in emissions between the developed and the developing nations. Sir John commended the Kyoto Protocol as the first step in stabilising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. It has been estimated that the cost of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions would be about six months of GDP spread over 50 years. This would be well within the “noise” of economic activity.</div> <div> Biomass, windmills, water energy and solar cells could all make an impact in decreasing carbon dioxide emissions. Rather controversially for some, Sir John felt that nuclear energy could be a useful stopgap in the medium term. He suggested that we should use the considerable stockpiles of weapons grade plutonium as fuel. This already exists, and so no extra waste would be produced, and it might enable us to buy time while renewable technologies were brought on-line.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Conclusions</B></div> <div> Sir John left us with three points for optimism on Global Warming:</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b7014000000000.png" HEIGHT="21" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">The commitment of the scientific community to solving the problem.</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b7014000000000.png" HEIGHT="21" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">The fact that the technology is already available to deal with the problem.</div> <div> <IMG BORDER="0" SRC="Symb075c00b7014000000000.png" HEIGHT="21" WIDTH="24" ALIGN="bottom" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0">God's commitment to His Creation.</div> <bR> <div> <I>(this report by Martin Hodson)</I></div> </td> </tr></table></body>